Rates Spark: This Time U.S. Rates Can Take The Lead Again

2026-02-11 08:00:00 ET

By Michiel Tukker , Senior European Rates Strategist

US rates take the lead as focus returns to jobs numbers

US rates are leading again in global rate markets, and the focus is back on a cooling jobs market. The ADP numbers came in softer than hoped and retail sales for December stayed flat, suggesting the consumer is not helping growth. The more downbeat economic outlook flattened the back end of the curve, with 30Y UST yields some 7bp lower. On Wednesday, we have the delayed US payrolls data, which could again challenge market positioning. Government officials over the past few days have warned that one should expect lower jobs numbers going forward, adding to the shift in sentiment. A worsening US macro outlook does not, however, seem to faze equities and the S&P 500 keeps hugging record highs. Once again, we’re reminded of the K-shaped economy, whereby strong gains in AI are in stark contrast with the worsening picture for middle- and lower-income Americans....

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