Robust U.S. Growth, But It Lacks Breadth
2026-01-30 10:30:00 ET
By James Knightley , Chief International Economist, US
Growth immune to the government shutdown
We have revised our US 2026 GDP growth forecast higher to 2.7% from 2.3%, in part reflecting a stronger fourth quarter of 2025. The government shutdown was thought to mean growth would slow notably in the fourth quarter, but the private sector has performed well, and the October trade report was remarkable in that the deficit of $29bn was the smallest outcome since 2009, when the economy was depressed after the Global Financial Crisis....
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