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Summary Recession foretold in developed markets (DM), a pause in central bank rate hikes and China’s reopening help shape 2023 and reinforce our tactical views. European equities led DM stocks higher. Surprisingly weak U.S. services data spurred bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts...
Summary A historic 2022 taught us to widen the lens of possible scenarios, factor in geopolitical risk and use a new playbook for more frequent portfolio changes. Global stocks ended the year down 18%, while bonds fell 16%. This marked the biggest market storm in decades amid inflation ...
Summary The Fed’s interest rate and liquidity tools are blunt instruments, particularly in a service-oriented economy. If inflation indeed moderates from here, it is likely that interest rate volatility moderates alongside it. Monetary policy has created the asset-on/asset-of...
Summary 1 or more years of additional interest-rate duration in ‘23 vs. ‘22, to be grown over time: As central banks slow, or pause, their tightening cycles, in sympathy with slowing economic growth and inflation. 6% to 6.5% of portfolio carry potential (including anticipa...
Summary After adding $1.3 trillion in MBS over the last five years, banks slashed their holdings by roughly $100 billion as of November 2022. Mortgage rates in the United States have soared in 2022, helping to cool housing demand from home buyers. Investors holding MBS pools who may...
Summary As the stock market went up the first two days of the week, more shares transacted at rising prices. A leading retail-oriented broker indicated their clients have been buying mostly corporate/municipal bonds and commodities, while selling declining US government bonds. The t...
Summary Why are bonds taking a big hit? As the rate hike cycle moves closer to the end, could a generational opportunity in fixed income be emerging? How do long term capital market expectations look? Are GICs recommended? Rising interest rates have inflicted m...
Summary While it’s been a tough year, the Federal Reserve has done investors an enormous favor in terms of the attractiveness of a wide swath of fixed-income asset classes that today look a lot more attractive than a year ago. Jay Powell and the FOMC did raise the Fed funds rate ...
Summary As a result of higher mortgage rates, an oversupply of housing and falling demand, the downturn in the housing market is only just getting started. Given the housing markets are important to economic growth, this will continue to be a significant drag on the business cycle...
Summary The average spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 1.7% since 1990 and now stands at 2.9%. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to look better technically than US large cap. The Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P 400 (midcap) index E...
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2024-07-25 10:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-05 09:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-05 15:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...