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The Chinese economic situation is unsustainable and could lead to a debt crisis, Kevin Caron, senior portfolio manager at Washington Crossing Advisors, told viewers of Real Vision’s Trade Ideas. Unusually for an emerging market economy, China has 50% of its GDP in investment an...
My first day on Wall Street. It is breathtaking, just breathtaking. Never before, ever, in the history of the world, going back over 2,000 years, has there ever been negative yielding debt before. For millennia, the debtor paid the lender interest to receive money. "Different this Time," doe...
During what was variously described as a disastrous press conference on Wednesday, Jerome Powell said trade tensions nearly "boiled over" in May and June but "returned to a simmer" in July. The Fed Chair made a number of mistakes over the course of his press conference, and that was one of t...
I've talked quite a bit in these pages about the extent to which 2019 has been a year defined by an epochal central bank pivot, which has reinvigorated the global hunt for yield to the benefit of risk assets. There was a time not so long ago (perhaps five years ago) when the vast majority o...
The Fed is in the blackout window ahead of the July FOMC, and mercifully so. As we saw on Thursday , the market is exceptionally sensitive to communications around the likely scope of the forthcoming rate cut (i.e., "Will it be 25 bp or 50?"). John Williams's fumbled effort to extoll the vi...
Is The Economy Still Slowing? With the S&P 500 ( S P500) pressing new all-time highs, you are probably asking yourself whether the economic cycle is still slowing. Although we all know that the stock market is not the economy, it is logical to link the two and question the direction of e...
What a time to be alive and trading. On Thursday, market participants were treated to what's been variously described as an "unprecedented event", when New York Fed President John Williams presented a speech called "Living Life Near the ZLB" only to come back hours later and "clarify" that i...
The BCI at 255.2 is up from last week's downward revised 254.7, and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 78.4. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.8 is below last week’s 10.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recessi...
The data is improving and that should be a good thing. I've variously argued (both on this platform and on my site) that the most important takeaway from last week was also the simplest. US equities hit new highs even has bond yields rose. Here's a simple chart I used in my traditional Su...
The market is now at record highs, and unemployment is way down. Even so, a U.S. rate cut is expected as early as this week. During his congressional testimony last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell raised concerns over slower global growth and trade tensions, which in turn have con...
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2024-07-15 09:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-05 10:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 13:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...