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In part I of this series, we discussed the very short end of the yield curve, actually starting with Fed Funds futures, to understand the expectations in the market today as it pertains to Federal Reserve policy. If you have not read part I, you can do so by clicking here . After analyz...
President Trump stated in January 2017 that he wanted a weak U.S. dollar. The primary reason Mr. Trump wanted a weak U.S. dollar was to reduce the country’s trade balance. In January 2017, it took about $1.07 to purchase one Euro. (It took just above $1.04 to buy a Euro in Decem...
Yield Curve - Understanding All The (Conflicting?) Messages The shape of the yield curve and the various rates on Treasury bonds provide the most comprehensive outlook on growth, inflation, Fed policy and more across various time frames. Many analysts either dismiss the yield curve and the T...
Then frustration being experienced within the Federal Reserve System is boiling over in many different directions. The frustration is being fueled by the question about “ How Will Monetary Policy Be Conducted Going Forward? ” The discussions initially began about where shoul...
Ernie Tedeschi recently published " Deficits are Raising Interest Rates. But Other Factors are Lowering Them. ", in which he discusses the results of some regression models that attempt to model the 10-year Treasury yield based on a number of factors, including fiscal deficits or debt. His wor...
By Blu Putnam At a Glance With the U.S. economy decelerating and central banks halting asset purchases, there's something for buyers and sellers of U.S. bonds. The bond market is confused, with two prevailing viewpoints that are pulling it in different directions. The chart below i...
In this exclusive clip from Hedgeye’s inaugural Mega Market Trends webcast, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough answers a viewer question on how inflation expectations factor into our investing decisions. McCullough laments that inflation is one of the most underappreciated factors in fore...
Corporate bond spreads are an important measure of risk, liquidity and general economic/market conditions. Corporate bond spreads or credit spreads represent the yield above an equal maturity Treasury bond or risk-free rate. For example, if a 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 3% and a...
Believe it or not, officials at the Federal Reserve are discussing how the Federal Reserve should operate its monetary policy in “normal” times. As explained by Nick Timiraos in the New York Times , “Federal Reserve officials are zeroing in on a strategy to end the wind...
If you are a regular reader of mine, you know that I am a strident critic of monetary policy in our country and that I have been immensely skeptical of our Federal Reserve for (in my opinion) being beholden to daily moves in the stock market to help it set what is supposed to be longer-term mo...
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2024-07-15 09:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-05 10:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 13:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...