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Summary The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in December, slipping below 6% annualized, based on the average forecast for three models. GMI represents a theoretical benchmark of the optimal portfolio for the average investor with an infinite time h...
Summary The S&P 500 Index is probably the most important equity index in the world. For many investors, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 became synonymous with passive investing. In this article, I will compare the three largest ETFs on the index (SPY, IVV, and VOO) and challe...
Summary For 40 years, steadily declining inflation and interest rates buoyed equity returns. That changed abruptly last year. Investors must now adjust expectations to a new macroeconomic and market landscape that will require a fresh mindset to reach long-term goals. By...
Summary Economists at large financial institutions are predicting a recession for 2023, not a very deep one, but one that will return inflation back to the target of the Federal Reserve. The picture these economists see is one in which the Federal Reserve can maintain its "quantitative ...
Summary Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The big winner: broadly defined commodities. Overall, markets suffered far and wide, including losses for US stocks and bonds in the same calendar year. L...
Summary SCHD has outperformed the market over the previous 5 years and offers a dividend yield that is double traditional index funds. SCHD doesn't sacrifice upside potential for dividend income, so this hybrid ETF should do well if the market turns in 2023. SCHD has grown its divid...
Summary The term structure of interest rates has a negative slope to it, a possible indicator that a recession is taking place or will take place soon. Inflationary expectations built into the existing yield curve indicate that investors believe that the Fed will come close to attaining...
Summary Patterns repeat. Recency bias forgets history. The 40 year decline in interest rates has skewed investment thinking. We have entered an inflationary commodity cycle. Gold and precious metals are entering a major bull market. “Patterns repeat, because hum...
Summary With 2022's final trading day done and dusted, we move into 2023 with cautious optimism. Strategists have gotten their 2022 EPS target for the S&P 500 spot on. However, they didn't anticipate a valuation compression due to significant macro headwinds. Could 2023 be any d...
Summary The year 2022 was characterized by the fact that there was lots and lots of uncertainty, uncertainty pertaining for the Federal Reserve, uncertainty related to Russia, and uncertainty all over. The year 2023 starts out with the expectation that the new year will show plenty of t...
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2024-07-18 07:15:00 ET Investing in stocks can be challenging, especially when it comes to selecting individual companies. The process requires extensive research, constant monitoring, and carries substantial risk. For those seeking a simpler approach, Vanguard offers a compelling solut...
2024-06-16 13:30:00 ET Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) blasted to all-time highs on Wednesday. Apple is up over 14% in the last month -- the recent rally primarily fueled by a positive response to its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Apple is inte...
2024-06-03 23:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...