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Summary Each year, several thousand business leaders, politicians, and journalists convene in the ritzy mountain town of Davos, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum. Part media spectacle and part secret bacchanalia, Davos features wild predictions about the future, crazy afterpartie...
Summary Over the past thirty years or so, the government has followed an approach to its economic policy I have called and described as "credit inflation." The policy of "credit inflation" was based upon the statistical relationship called the "Phillips Curve" showing how unemployment a...
Summary In earlier articles, I made recommendations for ETFs and mutual funds that one should consider given the unusual combination of conditions we don't often see. How successful were these recommendations made under very high inflation, the Growth fund collapse, steeply rising Fed f...
Summary No one rings a bell at the bottom of the market or economic cycle. For this reason, I think it is better to increase and decrease market exposure based on rates of change. I follow rates of change in all the macroeconomic and market indicators. In aggregate, they tell me...
Summary The period after World War II could be a good comparison for the current inflationary period. After the inflation peak in August 1948, it took 24 months for the stock market to make new all-time highs. The current inflation likely peaked in October 2022 and will move lower. ...
Summary JPMorgan Chase has given us a picture of how the "big" banks look going into 2023 where they might face a recession, a weak one, or, a much bigger one. JPMorgan earned 14 percent on common equity in 2022, down from a 19 percent return in the previous year, primarily due to a sub...
Summary Key to my outlook for a soft landing is a return to real wage growth. The rate of inflation has fallen faster than the rate of wage growth for two consecutive months and that should continue into the new year. That should result in a continuation of real consumer spending gr...
Summary Knowing when the U.S. economy is heading for recession is paramount to successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index would have provided early reliable warnings for the past seven recessions and signaled the Covid 2020 recession one week late. The BCI is a...
Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. All time frames: long leading, short leading, and coincident, remain negative. In large part due to t...
When you're just starting to invest, it's easy to get overwhelmed by the sheer number of options. Instead of rushing in and buying something you don't understand, purchasing an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is an excellent first move. ETFs are similar to mutual funds, except they trade like a stock....
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2024-07-18 07:15:00 ET Investing in stocks can be challenging, especially when it comes to selecting individual companies. The process requires extensive research, constant monitoring, and carries substantial risk. For those seeking a simpler approach, Vanguard offers a compelling solut...
2024-06-16 13:30:00 ET Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) blasted to all-time highs on Wednesday. Apple is up over 14% in the last month -- the recent rally primarily fueled by a positive response to its annual Worldwide Developers Conference. Apple is inte...
2024-06-03 23:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...