S&P 500: AI CAPEX Reality Check

2026-02-09 14:45:30 ET

Will the Market Underestimate Hyperscalers’ CAPEX Again in 2026?

As all equity indices (such as the DJI , SP500 , NASDAQ , and RTY ) keep creating near highs, I have written a couple of recent articles to caution investors about betting against the SP500. In recent years, many investors have become increasingly concerned about the sustainability of AI CAPEX spending from hyperscalers. Yet, according to the report and statistics from Goldman Sachs below, the market has drastically underestimated the degree and also the duration of their AI CAPEX in both 2024 and 2025. In 2024 and 2025, the market expects about 19% to 22% of AI CAPEX increase from the top 5 hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOG, META, MSFT, and AVGO), respectively. But their true spendings increased by 54% and 64%, respectively, as seen....

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