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The panic attack that ravaged markets in the fourth quarter of last year, causing a 20% loss in the S&P 500 index, has almost completely reversed. Overseas equity markets have recovered as well; credit spreads are back to normal levels, the dollar is relatively stable, and commodity pric...
Geoffrey H. Moore was famously called "the father of leading indicators" for his composite index approach to forecasting business cycles. In this research note, I want to walk through an example of a leading indicator that Moore described for the employment market in a 1983 working pa...
The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on Wednesday and the feeling is that there will be no change in the central bank’s policy rate of interest. Fed watchers, however, will be looking for changes in the “feel and tone” of what Federal Reserve officials wr...
In Macro Letter - No 108 - 18-01-2019 - A world of debt - where are the risks? I looked at the increase in debt globally, however, there has been another trend, since 2009, which is worth investigating as we consider from whence the greatest risk to global growth may hail. The BIS global...
The U.S. Treasury will offer $11 billion in an auction Thursday of a reopened 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Security, CUSIP 9128285W6 . This TIPS, which originally auctioned January 17, carries a coupon rate of 0.875%. Its principal is adjusted higher (or lower) each month to match inf...
As I observed in my previous article discussing seven ways in which our current decade resembles the 1920s, history may rhyme, but it does not repeat. For all the relevant similarities, there are also relevant differences - indeed, more differences than similarities. Perhaps the most obv...
The BCI at 249.2 is below last week's 249.9, and remains below this business cycle’s peak as indicated by the BCIp at 80.3. Also, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.5 is below last week’s 10.1. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recession. (BCIp needs to drop be...
A little over one month ago, I penned a research note titled, " Bonds Are Saying Something - We Should Be Listening ," in which I gave a comprehensive analysis of interest rates and discussed the opposing messages in the stock market and the bond market. While some readers took this anal...
Quantitative tightening has been running at full speed for almost 5 months now (and for a total period of 17 months since commencing in October 2017), and with QT finally coming front of mind for investors I thought it would be a good idea to update some of the charts from my previous " 8 Char...
This morning, my normal global scan of economic data and updates to existing models was augmented by a series of surveys from IHS Markit on Business Conditions. While IHS Markit updated the business conditions for many individual countries including the United States, Spain, France, Ita...
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2024-07-15 10:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 23:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-25 01:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...