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HBO's epic fantasy TV series hit off its final season this past week, reminding viewers that through seven seasons of proclaiming that "Winter is Coming" despite no discernible signs of such change, winter has finally come. And with winter, which in the world of the story is a protracted sea...
Understanding The Economy: Where Are We Headed? In a recent research note, published about two months ago, I outlined why recession risk was low despite a decelerating economic environment. I made this assessment based on my four-factor coincident index which was constructed based o...
While preparing a chart of upcoming auctions of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities a few weeks ago, I noticed something odd: The Treasury had scheduled a 5-year TIPS reopening in June, in the spot normally reserved for a 30-year TIPS reopening. Was it a typo? Or was the schedule cha...
The U.S. and China could end up in two very different economic environments as we progress throughout 2019. We remain data dependent and will react accordingly – but early signs suggest that the U.S. will remain in stagflationary Quad 3 (growth slowing, inflation rising) for the res...
Six Months of Flattening I’ve been publishing on the yield curve since November, and in that time, the curve has undergone some changes. All yield data comes from your good friends, the economists at the US Treasury . For some time, the most obvious feature of the curve was...
We Americans pride ourselves on beating our own records. One of our most recent accomplishments occurred in February of this year when we posted the biggest fiscal deficit in our history as a nation of $234 billion . In one month! If we can sustain that level of spending for the year, we wi...
A lot has changed since December, when I declared that month's five-year TIPS reopening auction " a screaming buy ." That auction generated a real yield of 1.129% , the highest for any auction for this term since April 2009. The screaming is over, folks. In just four months, real yields (me...
The purpose of this article is to assess the macro-fiscal flows for March 2019 and determine what effect these flows will have on the stock market and the economy. Macro fiscal flows impact investment markets with a lagged effect of typically one month. A flush of funds now from government s...
The Yale Target-Date Plus models A glide-path strategy is one that systematically reduces the equity component of the asset allocation and increases the fixed income component of an investment portfolio as the individual ages and approaches retirement. The new Yale "streamlined" investment...
To be clear: I think the fixed rate for U.S. Series I Savings Bonds will fall on May 1 from its current level of 0.5%, the highest in more than 10 years. But I don't know it. Why? Because the U.S. Treasury gives no hint about how it determines the fixed rate for I Bonds. It simply announ...
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2024-07-15 10:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 23:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-25 01:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...