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2023-08-30 11:01:45 ET Summary Inflation above 2% has a negative impact on stock prices; the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF has averaged poor performance during such years. Various sub-sectors of the stock market and sectors of the bond market are affected differently by high inf...
2023-08-25 05:30:00 ET Summary The NY Fed's yield-curve inversion model predicts a high probability of a recession in the next year, but risk premia in equity and credit markets do not reflect this. Junk credit spreads are vulnerable to a "violent repricing" and junk bonds are at ...
2023-08-18 23:30:00 ET Summary TIPS and gold are widely considered to be classic inflation hedges, but they couldn't be more different. TIPS look far more attractive than gold these days, since they are not only an inflation hedge but also a deflation hedge and a hedge against an ...
2023-08-14 20:25:00 ET Summary The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. The 10 year TIPS yield today is consistent with the rates that prevailed prior to the 2008 crisis and I think that means that we are fi...
2023-08-11 07:00:00 ET Summary The US dollar remains firm, rising against major currencies and emerging market currencies. US quarterly refunding completed successfully, with a slight downgrade in chances of a Fed hike next month. China's lending figures for July were unexpect...
2023-08-07 18:55:00 ET Summary The stock market was down a little over 2% last week in what may be the start of a larger correction. In the 1970 recession, rates rose right until the onset of recession and hit a new high for that cycle during the recession. The employment repo...
2023-07-17 07:35:00 ET Summary Is the Fed responsible for the drop in the inflation rate? If not, what does that imply about future policy and inflation? The 10-year/3-month Treasury spread has been inverted since last year, and that has been a reliable predictor of recession in t...
2023-07-12 11:30:00 ET Summary We have had a big surprise in the June consumer price inflation report with both headline and core (ex food and energy) rates rising. The Fed is focused on stamping out all inflation threats and is obsessed with services ex energy ex housing as they ...
2023-07-06 09:34:27 ET Summary Passive index investing assures average returns to the market, whereas hedging a portfolio of common stocks with low-cost exchange-traded funds increases diversification and safety. When hedging a retail portfolio, the index ETFs from Vanguard Group ...
2023-07-04 04:27:00 ET Summary A big change has occurred in the gold market since Russia invaded Ukraine and the West seized the euro- and dollar-denominated assets from Russia’s central bank. The US fiscal deficit in 2022 was $1.38 trillion, while the value of newly mined ...
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2024-07-15 10:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 23:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-25 01:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...