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I think the Fed is generally terrible at communicating things to the outside world. Stocks are a very good inflation hedge in the long run. If you want to gamble, at least be smart about it by using products that aren’t guaranteed to kill your portfolio in the long run. ...
Last week the Fed met, and for a few hours everyone thought it meant one thing, but by the next day, everyone had decided that it didn’t mean that at all. In the end, bond yields barely moved and the outlook for the economy only changed mildly. The 10-year Treasury note yield w...
During the fund flows week, investors continued their search for yield, injecting a net $2.0 billion and $1.9 billion into taxable bond funds (including ETFs) and municipal bond funds, respectively. On the taxable side, Short Investment-Grade Debt Funds (+$884 million) attracted the l...
Fast-rising inflation could have major economic consequences with implications that reach far beyond the checkout aisle. The best-known measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index [CPI], rose 5% in May 2021 compared with the same month last year — the biggest annual rise sin...
The latest update for the June 2021 central bank conclave shows several more voting members projecting the first rate hikes to begin toward the end of next year, a supposedly very hawkish shift from the last time. While that may be true, it also doesn’t mean anything, especiall...
Released on 16 June, the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) implies that the Fed could hike interest rates twice in 2023 instead of 2024 or later, as it had projected in March. We see the recent rise in inflation expectations as a welcome development because infl...
Much of last week’s economic focus was on the inflation report. Inflation was indeed pretty hot year over year, but that wasn’t unexpected. With CPI printing at 5% year over year, bond yields fell. But these are small moves, and the trend for rates is still up for now. ...
In my July 2020 article on this site, I urged investors to shun money market funds in favor of bonds for the portion of their portfolios not invested in stocks. Over 11 months later, cash has returned close to nothing while bond funds I recommended have returned 3.69%, not annualized....
On the surface, conditions in the US look pretty fantastic these days. Prices for lots of goods and services are soaring. Job openings are at record highs. Does the historically low level of real risk-free yields on TIPS suggest that US economic growth will be anemic at best for as fa...
Episodes of a high and rising inflation rate are mostly due to unexpected inflation shocks, and assets may reprice materially during such regimes. Unexpected inflation is bad news for traditional assets, the 60-40 equity-bond portfolio performed poorly during inflationary regimes, wit...
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2024-07-15 10:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 23:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-25 01:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...