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With today's release of the August CPI, it looks on the surface as if inflation is moderating, much as the Fed has been hoping. Looking deeper, though, I think it still pays to be skeptical - especially since the belief that this inflation flareup is merely transitory has been fully e...
Replacing regular bonds in your portfolio requires taking some non-traditional positions. Short-term TIPS are quite attractive due to rising inflation and can become an important asset in the non-stock part of your portfolio. VTIP is a convenient and inexpensive instrument to own ...
Bond investors have eagerly awaited news on the proposed timing of the Fed’s plans to begin tapering and have been looking for hints of when rates may start to rise. The combination of low interest rates and signs of rising inflation have investors concerned. The prospects ...
Risk-adjusted performance continued to rise in August for the Global Market Index. Sharpe ratios in global markets generally are elevated. GMI represents a theoretical benchmark for the “optimal” portfolio. For further details see: Major Asset Classes | Aug...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market (GMI) ticked up in August, reaching an annualized 6.1%, slightly above the previous month’s estimate. Despite the comparatively high GMI forecast, the current estimate remains well below the index’s realized risk premium fo...
The winning streak for American shares rolled on in August. US stocks rose for a seventh straight month and posted the strongest gain for the major asset classes. US bonds also lost ground in August. The Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index slipped 0.2%, the first monthly decline for the be...
The U.S. Treasury is preparing for coupon cuts, but the impact on private supply will be nuanced. Without significant coupon cuts, the percent of debt outstanding in T-Bills will fall well below the Treasury recommended 15% to 20%. The actions of the Federal Reserve’s Asset...
On Monday, the CEA published a blogpost on how the administration’s infrastructure and Build Back Better plans won’t be inflationary. I think it’s of interest to see how the market (which will undoubtedly turn out to be wrong) thinks inflation and output will evol...
The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate adjusted for the expected change in the associated currency’s purchasing power, where “expected” is the operative word. Of course, when you buy the security, you have no way of knowing what will happen to the cur...
A pure zero-coupon bond, which is essentially the building block of all of finance because it is part of the discount factor, is the simplest way to take this concept and put it into a simple atomic calculation. If you do not have a market meltdown, that asset price inflation will slo...
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2024-07-15 10:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 23:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-25 01:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...