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When investors’ nerves are wound tight, it doesn’t take much to set off an emotional reaction which can lead to a major short-covering episode. We got a small taste of that after the 1% pullback in the S&P 500 Index (SPY) on Thursday, as the long frustrated bears were heard g...
As the stock market stabilizes from the devastating fourth quarter of 2018, investors must be wary of brokers pitching “risk off” trades. First, let’s define “risk-on risk-off.” It refers to changes in investment activity in response to global economic patt...
Total vehicle sales is one of many classic leading economic indicators of the business cycle. Vehicle sales historically peak preceding recessionary periods due to the relatively large sticker price of the good in the consumer basket, the sensitivity to interest rates, and the economic c...
Yesterday, I asked the question, “ Which is Right? The Bond Market or the Stock Market? .” Prices in both markets had been rising over the past month, or two, or three. This is not the usual situation, so it was natural to raise the question about which market is right about ...
The euphoria that carried the stock market to an 8% gain in January all but erased the pessimism that led to one of the worst December's on record, when the S&P 500 ( SPY ) fell nearly 9%. Net, over the past two months, there has been a lot of chop, volatility and constantly shifting narr...
Prices in the bond market and in the stock market have been traveling in the same direction. This is not the pattern one might expect. Looking at the bond market first, bond prices have been rising for the past three months. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note hit 3.25 percent on Nove...
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015). The unemployment rate model ( article link ) updated with the January 2019 rate...
What the Fed did and said Wednesday Facts first, interpretation second, trading and investing thoughts last. Here is the key part of what the Federal Open Market Committee's statement said Wednesday: ...the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2...
First, an anecdote: After my wife and I married in 1986, we set a grocery-shopping rule: " Never buy a bottle of wine that costs more than $10 ." And today, 33 years later, we are still following that rule: French wines, Italian wines, California wines, all still less than $10 a bottle (OK, ...
The outlook for gold continues to brighten now that it no longer has to compete with higher interest rates. In today’s report, we’ll discuss the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate statement and its impact on the bullion price. We’ll also examine gold’s ...
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2024-07-15 10:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-03 23:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-25 01:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...