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The fiscal policies implemented post the pandemic-driven economic shutdown created a surge in demand that created an unprecedented surge in corporate earnings. When stocks deviate from the underlying economy, the eventual resolution is lower stock prices. The deviation from long-t...
After a full year of underperforming a counterfactual based upon the "Great Recession" trade recovery, the post-pandemic trade recovery between the U.S. and China has finally caught up to that projection in terms of current, or nominal, U.S. dollars. Digging into the trade data, we fo...
There are now 20 million more 55+ employed than there were in 2000. The 55+ population increased by 42 million (from 57 million in 2000 to 99 million today), a 74% increase. Total employment in the age cohort increased by 113%. This reflects structural changes in the U.S. economy:...
After Friday’s big payroll number, stocks sank as the buzz was that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points at its September meeting. And they well might. One of the amazing developments of the Covid pandemic was that many people who were forced to stay...
It appears the U.S. economy may be falling into recession - the business cycle has not been eliminated. Valuations outside the U.S. continue to look relatively attractive versus the U.S., especially in Japan. Credit spreads rallied over the past month or so and are once again in l...
Second Quarter GDP recently contracted by 0.9%. Combined with the contraction of 1.6% in the first quarter, the economy is now in what historically has been deemed a recession. The administration and most of the media have pushed back on this narrative, sighting yet another strong mon...
Compounding interpretation of the data now is the issue of the pandemic and the consequences of an ill-advised global economic shutdown. Some economists contend two quarters of negative GDP alone is not a sufficient indication of a recession. Certainly, some market sectors and ind...
Persistently elevated rates of price increases and an intensifying Fed tightening cycle are impacting economic activity. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers have shown greater resilience. Initial claims remain at a very low level by historical comparison, but a clear u...
We prefer investment grade credit over equities right now. Our reasoning: valuations, strong balance sheets, low supply and moderate refinancing risks. U.S. data last week showed strong job creation but still low labor participation. Stocks lost steam and bond yields spiked as markets...
Elevated inflation, slowing global economic growth expectations, and reduced central bank liquidity remain the key economic considerations. The policy interest rate divergence between the U.S. and Europe is likely to increase amid heightened recession risk in Europe. We expect mar...
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2024-07-25 13:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-05 12:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-15 15:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...