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Summary The expected long-run return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in December, slipping below 6% annualized, based on the average forecast for three models. GMI represents a theoretical benchmark of the optimal portfolio for the average investor with an infinite time h...
Summary We expect 2023 to be a year of transition, with gradual fading of price pressures allowing policymakers and market participants to take a more balanced approach to assessing growth and inflation dynamics. The near-term outlook calls for more of the same: high inflation and rate ...
Summary For 40 years, steadily declining inflation and interest rates buoyed equity returns. That changed abruptly last year. Investors must now adjust expectations to a new macroeconomic and market landscape that will require a fresh mindset to reach long-term goals. By...
Summary Losses dominated market activity for the major asset classes in 2022. Commodities and cash are the exceptions. The big winner: broadly defined commodities. Overall, markets suffered far and wide, including losses for US stocks and bonds in the same calendar year. L...
Summary 2022 was the first year since 2016 that value investing thoroughly trounced growth investing. Growth had a nice spurt off the lows in June and October ’22 but the higher 10-year Treasury yield is acting like a wet blanket for growth stocks. I continue to think that no...
Summary There were ample causes for this global downdraft in equity markets. Global equity markets look likely to face a global recession in 2023, which appears to have already begun in the final quarter of 2022. Equity markets will face a tough global environment in 2023, particula...
Summary Dismissing asset allocation as ineffective has become popular in some circles in recent years, but the charge is demonstrably false. Decision to allocate into commodities, or not, probably explains a lot about the performance of multi-asset class portfolios this year. US REI...
Summary Inflation and central bank policy will likely continue being key focus points for investors. 2023 may not see a repeat of the frantic Federal Reserve activity that characterized 2022, but policy rates almost certainly still have further to rise. While 2023, with its challeng...
Summary Return divergences were largely an outgrowth of the collapse in resource stocks. Amid the extreme risk-on/risk-off swings in sentiment spurred by the pandemic and Russia/Ukraine war, industry performances have been as polarized as they've ever been in a decade. The turbulent...
Summary Markets continue to fall and trailing yields continue to rise. The average yield for the major asset classes ticked up to 4.50%, based on trailing data through Dec. 19, according to data from Morningstar.com. The future’s still uncertain, which implies that hedging yo...
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2024-05-15 02:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-05 08:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-26 17:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...