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Summary For many investors who started their investing journey following the financial crisis, forward returns will be disappointing compared to the last decade. After more than a decade, many investors have become complacent in expecting elevated rates of return from the financial mark...
Summary There seems to be a widespread view that employment is a lagging indicator of changes in the business cycle. The growth rate of payroll employment slowed sharply in the 6 months before the onset of recession. When there is no unexpected shock like Covid, it seems as though e...
Summary Lehman declared bankruptcy on September 15, 2008. Let’s compare SPY in 2022 to the experience of 2008 before the Lehman bankruptcy which then punctuated a year-long downside drift. 2022 has exhibited a downside drift much like early 2008. Now what? There will be a capitul...
Summary 2022 was a disappointing year for both stock and bond investors. The real (inflation-adjusted) 25% loss in stocks is in the bottom decile. The real 20.3 bond loss is the worst in the past 97 years, and greater losses could lie ahead. The following 2 histograms and ...
Summary 2022 ends on a sour note with an across-the-board December selloff. The year is over, but the macro scene still looks challenging. If an investor has learned nothing else, it's obvious trying to fight the Fed is a losing proposition. "Anything worth doing is wo...
Summary The Bank of Japan shocked the market by increasing the band on their Yield Curve Control policy. The policy change was necessary because the BOJ has maintained an accommodative monetary policy despite surging inflation and a weakening yen. The policy change has not had the d...
Summary Bullish sentiment actually rebounded up to 26.5% after spending four straight weeks below 25%. Bearish sentiment fell from a recent high of 52.3% down to 47.6%. The share of respondents reporting neutral sentiment was also lower this week falling for the fourth week in a row...
Summary The second half of 2022 was historic for the US housing market. Transaction volumes froze and prices started to decline. A review of the 2022 housing market and what to expect in 2023. The first half of 2023 will look like the second half of 2022. Slow/declining hous...
Summary Initial jobless claims have not been of particular interest recently as the weekly indicator has seen choppy week-to-week moves that have yet to set any major new high or low. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, claims tend to drift higher at the end of the year and into the new...
Summary Seeking Alpha have asked contributors to make a forecast of S&P 500 index level at end of 2023. The basis of forecasting is fairly prescriptive, requiring an estimate of S&P 500 average multiple applied to an estimate of S&P 500 average earnings, to arrive at market ...
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2024-07-19 13:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-08 22:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-30 12:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...