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This year has seen significant volatility in credit markets given the tumultuous macroeconomic backdrop and hawkish Federal Reserve. Investment-grade bonds, bank loans, and high-yield bonds could perform differently now than in prior risk-off periods due to asset class-specific develo...
We're seeing declining asset prices from bond to equities, and in some cases, real assets because of higher inflation. We are seeing early signs that inflation is starting to moderate. Equity market is currently pricing in the probability of a mild recession. For further det...
The map of the Asset Allocation Committee’s market views is a buzz of activity this quarter. Coming into 2022, we anticipated slower growth compared with the steep recovery levels of 2021 and inflation that was declining but persistent—and problematic due to its origins ...
The expected risk premium continued sliding in April for the Global Markets Index (GMI). Tuesday’s revision reflects a drop to a 5.4% annualized increase for the long term – a relatively large cut of 40 basis points from last month’s estimate. The forecast ref...
Yield-curve flattening and the credit sell-off have created value opportunities. Although off their wides, short duration corporate bonds still look compelling, in our view. We think the underperformance in financials is due to technical factors that should abate in the near term ...
If China were to continue to pursue a Zero Covid policy amidst rising case counts, supply chains originating in Asia could get shut down again. On the food front, wheat is particularly vulnerable to a prolonged conflict, which has been reflected in the performance of wheat futures. ...
Investors in short duration corporate bonds can capture 80% of the yield of the corporate Index while taking less than 25% of the interest rate risk. Generic two-year and three-year Treasury notes have risen 176 basis points year-to-date, compared to 127bps and 91bps, respectively, fo...
In an era of low yields, generating income has been a challenge for many investors, with attractive yields limited to a narrow range of asset classes. That landscape has improved somewhat since early 2022, with inflation, geopolitical tensions and hawkish global monetary policies driv...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index ticked slightly higher in March to an annualized 5.8% pace, fractionally above last month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) to adjust the forecast trims GMI...
We see developed market (DM) government bonds as ineffective portfolio diversifiers and favor inflation-linked bonds in this inflationary environment. Energy prices surged on further supply concerns. Equities slid, with Europe harder hit than the U.S. Bond yields fell on reduced rate ...
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2024-04-16 20:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-26 10:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2023-12-30 18:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...