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By Gerhardt (Gary) P. Herbert, CFA; Reina Berlien The economies of Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa have undergone an important structural shift since the 1990s, where private consumption has overtaken government spending and exports as the main contributor to GDP. On the surface, c...
At ExCel London, the very venue where then-UK prime minister Gordon Brown and the G20 met in April 2009 to "save the world economy" during the global financial crisis ((GFC)) , Adam Tooze addressed the 72nd CFA Institute Annual Conference , hosted by CFA Society of the UK , about where the ...
Data Source: Bloomberg May 2019 Market Commentary - Geopolitics Trumps 'Geo-Growth' Portrait of Sir Ralph Norman Angell, Author of the "Great Illusion". Source: Wikimedia . Labeled for Reuse. Bear with us as we pen a longer-than-usual monthly commentary, but we believe that the ...
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that there's little benefit to "trading the news" today, as prices adjust instantly to highly-transparent information. Rather, investors would do well to follow long-term cash flows, of which the lion's share is to be found in tech. Ignore market noise ...
By Carmel Corbett Wellso Director of Research Carmel Wellso explains what the latest front in global trade wars means for investors. The bull in the china shop is back at it. On Thursday, President Trump tweeted that he will impose a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico until th...
In early May we gathered our global team of investment professionals in Newport Beach for PIMCO's 38th annual Secular Forum. With input from invited speakers (see Our Process section, below) as well as our Global Advisory Board and other consultants, we zoomed in on several key secular drive...
By Jeffrey Kleintop Over the past 30 years, stock markets around the world have rallied after the Federal Reserve (Fed) hiked interest rates for the last time in the economic cycle. The rallies have varied in length and strength, but eventually break down as the late cycle environment enco...
Beginning around the end of 2006 it was common to hear that the U.S. stock market would keep climbing because the U.S. economy was neither too hot nor too cold; it was just right. This was often called the Goldilocks economy on cable TV in honor of the young girl who wanders into a strange hom...
Markets do not have the best of past records in pricing in major systemic risks to the global economy that later materialized and that then caused substantial market declines. Judging by how sanguine markets currently seem to be about the unusual constellation of major risks facing the world e...
The global financial markets are being held prisoner by rising trade tensions, primarily between the United States and China. While both countries feel, but to differing degrees, that they can weather a trade war, each is focusing on who will dominate the global economy over the next generatio...