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China is in the process of attempting to restructure its economy from a capital-intensive, investment-led model to a more Western-style, consumption-driven model, without the onset of a recession or crisis. This transition is made all the more difficult by the fact that the Chinese government ...
We are in a late cycle environment in which macro conditions are increasingly signaling deterioration, and this fact alone calls for nuanced portfolio construction. However, our macroeconomic analysis suggests that the economic softening so far has been largely offset by central banks around t...
By Ashwin Alankar The U.S. inflation rate has remained stubbornly low. Still, Ashwin Alankar, Head of Global Asset Allocation, says a combination of factors is helping set the stage for a potential inflationary shock. As concerns rise about a global economic slowdown, investors may be ...
The Chinese credit machine sputtered in July. Growth in Total Aggregate Financing dropped to $144 billion, almost 40% below consensus estimates. This was less than half of June's $320 billion increase and the slowest expansion since February. The sharp slowdown was beyond typical seasonality, ...
As we discussed in last week's blog "Race to the Bottom", traditional means of stimulating economic growth are no longer working and are, in fact, backfiring from their real intent. Governments need to move away from reliance on any additional monetary stimulus, which clearly is not working, a...
One of the consequences of globalization is that investors, analysts and companies can no longer stay focused on just their domestic markets, but have to also understand the risks and opportunities elsewhere in the world. When developed market companies first embarked on the journey of expandi...
By Paul O'Connor Paul O'Connor, Head of the UK-based Multi-Asset Team and Portfolio Manager on the International Opportunities Strategy, reflects on the recent developments in the U.S.-China trade war and discusses the potential impact of geopolitical uncertainty on economic and market se...
Each month, ZEW surveys analysts to gauge how they're feeling about economic growth around the world, both for the current period and going forward. We spend far too much time looking at global data to try and paint a sanguine picture about the state of the global economy, but some of the nega...
Anecdotal evidence from global survey panellists shows that the worldwide outlook is becoming increasingly gloomy. Long-running trends such as trade wars and political tensions continue to dampen businesses' forecasts, while new tensions in Asia add to fears of an uncertain future. IHS Marki...
By Pater Tenebrarum Anti-Vigilantes We dimly remember when Japanese government debt traded at a negative yield to maturity for the very first time. This happened at some point in the late 1990s or early 2000s in secondary market trading (it was probably a shorter maturity than the 10-y...