WE - Positive Stock Market Seasonality Ahead After Longest Losing Streak Since Pandemic Crash AI Excitement | Benzinga
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Positive Treasury News
Please click here for a chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (ARCA:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart is a monthly chart to give you a long term perspective.
- The chart shows that the stock market has just finished a three consecutive month losing streak.
- The chart shows this is the longest losing streak since the pandemic.
- As the stock market enters November, it is rare to have four consecutive losing months.
- The chart shows that the last time a four consecutive month drop occurred, it was in 2011. Long time members of The Arora Report may recall that in 2011, The Arora Report was one of the rare services that produced large positive returns. Most services and banks lost money.
- On the positive side, there have only been five prior times when the stock market went down in August, September, and October. These five times were in 2016, 1990, 1977, 1957, and 1952. In each of these five times, the stock market went up in November.
- The chart shows RSI divergence. From a longer term perspective, this is a technical negative.
- Yesterday, we wrote:
In The Arora Report analysis, the Treasury issuance statement is of utmost importance to stock investors. If yields rise further on long term bonds, this will be a negative for the stock market. On the other hand, if yields fall, it will be a positive for the stock market.
- We also previously wrote:
In The Arora Report analysis, Treasury issuance announcement is more important for investors than the Fed decision.
- Here are the details of the Treasury announcement:
- "The U.S. Department of the Treasury is offering $112 billion of Treasury securities to refund approximately $102.2 billion of privately-held Treasury notes maturing on November 15, 2023. This issuance will raise new cash from private investors of approximately $9.8 billion. The securities are: A 3-year note in the amount of $48 billion, maturing November 15, 2026; A 10-year note in the amount of $40 billion, maturing November 15, 2033; and A 30-year bond in the amount of $24 billion, maturing November 15, 2053.”
- In The Arora Report analysis, the details of the announcement are better than expectations. This is bringing in buyers in the stock market in the early trade.
- Today is Fed day. The Fed will announce ...