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Recent economic data is encouraging but Citi’s Economic Surprise Index suggests that the trend could be changing:
Markets
Prices as of 4 pm EST, 8/29/23
Macro
@macro_daily
The labor market is showing signs of cooling. That's the message being sent by yesterday's JOLTs data which revealed "just" 8.8 million job openings in July. The figure was below market expectations of 9.4 million vacancies and marked the lowest reading since March 2021. While numbers remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels, openings have declined for 3 consecutive months as the labor market continues to slow. Over that period, the US has shed over 2.5 million job openings, the largest 3-month decline ever. The number of quits, meanwhile, fell to its lowest in nearly 2 and half years and is now in line with pre-pandemic levels.
@newslambert
U.S. home prices are still rising. According to the Case-Shiller national home price index, home values in the country's 20 largest cities rose for the 5th consecutive month in June, increasing by 0.9%. On an annual basis, prices fell by 1% but if we zoom out, they still sit just 0.02% below their all-time highs set in June 2022. Comparing the current market to previous housing corrections (chart), it appears the recovery in today's home prices is running ahead ...