TSLA - World's Smartest Banker Says Could Be Hell To Pay If Wall Street's Craze Goes Wrong | Benzinga
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Hell To Pay
Please click here for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT).
Note the following:
- TLT moves inverse to long term yields. A fall in TLT means long term yields are rising. In this environment, rising yields are a big negative for the stock market.
- The chart shows that the rally in TLT failed at the trendline and close to the bottom of the resistance zone. This is a negative.
- The chart shows that TLT fell below the bottom band of the support zone prior to the release of the GDP data.
- The chart shows that TLT has slightly recovered after the release of GDP data.
- RSI on the chart shows that TLT is oversold and thus positioned to quickly bounce on the slightest good news.
- $44B seven year Treasury auction was soft. Here are the details:
- High yield: 4.650% (When-Issued: 4.637%)
- Bid-to-cover: 2.43
- Indirect bid: 66.9%
- Direct bid: 16.1%
- In The Arora Report analysis, the just released GDP data is slightly softer, and for the time being, takes the prospect of a rate hike off the table. Here are the details:
- GDP - second estimate for Q1 came at 1.3% vs. 1.3% consensus. You may recall that the advance report showed a 1.6% rise.
- GDP price deflator was up 3.0% vs. 3.1% consensus.
- Initial jobless claims came at 219K vs. 219K consensus. This data indicates that the jobs picture remains strong
- Private credit has been growing fast as banks have pulled back their lending. Wall Street has gone crazy for private credit. Previously, private credit was popular only among institutions. Now, private credit is being increasingly pushed on retail investors.
- Thank you for all of your great emails asking why The Arora Report is not recommending private credit at a time when almost everyone on Wall Street is pushing private credit. The answer is that unlike Wall Street, The Arora Report is dedicated to helping its members extract the maximum money out of the markets with the lowest possible risk over their lifetimes. To serve this purpose and avoid conflict of interest, The Arora Report does not sell private credit products, which is in contrast to Wall Street that is making a lot of money by selling private credit.
- There is a big contrast between The Arora Report analysis and Wall Street’s analysis regarding the risks in private credit. Wall Street sees no risk. The Arora Report sees quite a bit of risk. In The Arora Report analysis, it is only a matter of time before problems emerge in private credit. ...