UPGD - 'Straws In The Wind': Predictions? - Weekly Blog # 890

2025-05-27 06:35:00 ET

Summary

• A year ago, very few analysts and perceptive investors would have guessed which four mutual fund peer groups would now be leading the year-to-date race. They are Precious Metals Funds (+42.95%), Latin American Funds (+24.50%), Commoditized Precious Metals Funds (+22.60%), and European Region Funds (+20.61%).
• For the quarter we are in, I/B/E/S estimates of S&P 500 quarterly earnings per share is that we will gain +5.8%, while growing net income +4.3%.
• Venture Capital funds are having difficulty raising capital from investors and lenders. I suspect this is also true for the broader universe of private capital funds.

Originally published on May 18, 2025

Predictions

Ever since humans have thought about the future, they’ve looked for clues about what the future might hold. Since very few stocks can be purchased and converted back into cash immediately with a profit on the first transaction day, equity investors are essentially betting on one or more perceived futures. All we can do is guess what may happen....

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