WBA - 4 Dividend Aristocrat Buys For July And 6 To Watch

2023-07-11 19:39:34 ET

Summary

• "Dividend Aristocrats in the S&P 500 Index have raised their annual payouts every year for at least 25 consecutive years. "--Kiplinger.com/Investing.
• 67 Aristocrats, screened as of July 7, 2023, represented all eleven Morningstar Sectors. Broker-estimated top ten net-gains ranged 20.58%-43.58%, topped-by TGT & VFC.
• By yield, VFC topped all Aristocrats. Top-ten yields from ABBV, TROW, FRT, BEN, AMCR, IBM, O, MMM, VFC, and WBA averaged 5.22%.
• Aristocrats top ten, by broker-estimated target price upsides, XOM, CVX, ADM, ABBV, EMR, NEE, ALB, CB,  WBA, GD, CINF, CB, NEE, TGT, and VFC, averaged 24.89%.
• $5k invested July 7 in the five top-yield, lowest-priced Dogs of the Aristocrats showed 25.89% more net-gain than from $5k invested in all top ten. Small (lower-priced) July S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats led the pack by over two and one-half lengths.

Foreword

As supplement to this article, please note that Kiplinger has published an online slideshow detailing the latest 2023 S&P Dividend Aristocrats. The article, entitled 67 Best Dividend Stocks You Can Count On , is by Dan Burrows, a contributing editor.

S&P Dow Jones Indices rebalances the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats every January, and it made three tweaks for 2023.

The Aristocrats made three additions: J.M. Smucker (SJM) is a well-known consumer staples stock thanks to the company's wide range of popular brands; The inclusion of Nordson (NDSN) boosts the industrial sector's representation in the Dividend Aristocrats; and C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) provides freight transportation and logistics services to industries around the globe.

In 2024, V.F. Corp ( VFC ) should leave the list, having reduced its dividend in 2023.

Most of this collection of 67 S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats is too pricey to justify their skinny dividends. The consequence of stock market popularity (measured by stock price) is skinny dividends. The contrarian approach finds the top dogs by looking for high dividends. This month, four of the top ten highest yield Aristocrats live up to the dogcatcher ideal. That is, they pay annual dividends (from a $1K investment) exceeding their single share prices.

Those four are: Walgreens Boots Alliance ( WBA ); VF Corp; Amcor plc ( AMCR ); Franklin Resources, Inc. ( BEN ). Six more in the top ten, Realty Income Corp ( O ), 3M Co ( MMM ), Federal Realty Investment Trust ( FRT ), T. Rowe Price Group ( TROW ), International Business Machines Corp ( IBM ), and AbbVie Inc ( ABBV ) could soon join the ideal four. O was within $4.18 of making the dogcatcher ideal team and MMM was $19.81 off the mark as of 7/7/23.

As we are now three months, past three-years, removed from the 2020 Ides of March dip, the time to snap up those four lingering top yield Aristocrat dogs is at hand... Of course, when another big bearish drop in price happens, your strategy will be to add to your position in any of those you hold.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Predict 18.04% To 46.37% Top Ten Aristocrat Net Gains To July 2024

Four of the ten top Aristocrats by yield were also verified as being among the top ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below.) Thus, this yield-based July 7 forecast for Aristocrats (as graded by Brokers) was 40% accurate.

Estimated dividend-returns from $1000 invested in each of these highest-yielding stocks and their aggregate one-year analyst median target prices, as reported by YCharts, produced the 2023-24 data points for the projections below. (Note: target prices from less than two analysts were not used.) Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to July 7, 2024 were:

VF Corp was projected to net $463.73, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 20 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 50% greater than the market as a whole.

Target Corp ( TGT ) netted $350.38 based on a median target price estimate from 31 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 10% over the market as a whole.

NextEra Energy Inc ( NEE ) was projected to net $276.24, based on the median of target price estimates from 19 analysts, plus the estimated annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 54% less than the market as a whole.

AbbVie Inc was projected to net $248.46 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 25 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 44% less than the market as a whole.

Cincinnati Financial Corp ( CINF ) was projected to net $242.97 based on the median of target price estimates from 4 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 39% under the market as a whole.

Chevron Corp ( CVX ) was projected to net $230.73 based on target price estimates from 25 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate is subject to risk/volatility 16% over the market as a whole.

Exxon Mobil Corp ( XOM ) was projected to net $220.53, based on the median of target price estimates from 23 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 8% greater than the market as a whole.

Realty Income Corp was projected to net $214.91, based on a median of target estimates from 14 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 22% under the market as a whole.

Walgreens Boots Alliance was projected to net $200.33, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 15 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 31% under the market as a whole

The Coca-Cola Co (KO) was projected to net $180.44 based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 18 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 46% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated to be 26.29% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. The average Beta ranking showed these estimates subject to risk/volatility 15% less than the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the "dog" moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends, (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as "dogs." More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, "underdogs," even if they are "Aristocrats."

Top 50 Dividend Aristocrats By Broker Targets

This scale of broker-estimated upside (or downside) for stock prices provides a measure of market popularity. Note: no broker coverage or single broker coverage produced a zero score on the above scale. These broker estimates can be seen as the emotional component (as opposed to the strictly monetary and objective dividend/price yield-driven report below). As noted above, these scores may also be regarded as contrarian.

Top 50 Dividend Aristocrats By Yield

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top Stocks By Yield Are The July Dogs of The Dividend Aristocrats

Top ten Aristocrat Dogs selected 7/7/23 by yield represented six of eleven Morningstar sectors. First place went to the first of two healthcare representatives in the top ten, Walgreens Boots Alliance [1]. The other health member placed tenth, AbbVie Inc [10].

They were followed, in second place, by the first of two consumer cyclical representatives, VF Corp [2], and the other placed sixth, Amcor PLC [6].

A lone industrials representative, placed third, 3M Co [3]. Then two real estate representatives took the fourth, and eighth slots, Realty Income Corp [4], Federal Realty Investment Trust [8].

There followed, in fifth place, the lone technology sector Aristocrat, International Business Machines Corp[5].

Thereafter, two financial services firms placed seventh, and ninth, Franklin Resources Inc [7], and T. Rowe Price Group Inc [9]. This completed the July S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats top-ten, by yield.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Aristocrats Showed 15.03% To 40.94% Upsides To July 2024; (31) On The Downside Were Five -1.58% to -13.73% Losers

To quantify top-yield rankings, analyst median-price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" measure of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, analyst median price-target-estimates became another tool to dig-out bargains (or unrealistic expectations).

Analysts Estimated A 25.89% Advantage For The 5 Highest-Yield, Lowest-Priced of Top Ten Dividend Aristocrats To July 2024

Ten top Aristocrats were culled by (dividend/price) yield results for this monthly update.

As noted above, top ten Aristocrats by yield selected 7/7/23 represented six of eleven sectors in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Estimated 5 Lowest-Priced Of Ten Highest-Yield Dividend Aristocrats (32) Delivering 20.53% Vs. (33) 16.31% Net Gains by All Ten, Come July 2024

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten Dividend Aristocrats kennel by yield was predicted (by analyst 1-year targets) to deliver 25.89% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The second lowest-priced Aristocrats top-yield stock, VF Corp, was projected by analysts to deliver the best net gain of 46.37%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield Aristocrats as of July 7 were: Amcor PLC; VF Corp; Franklin Resources; Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc; Realty Income Corp, with prices ranging from $9.94 to $59.57

The five higher-priced top-yield Aristocrats as of July 7 were: Federal Realty Investment Trust; 3M Co; T. Rowe Price; International Business Machines Corp; AbbVie Inc, whose prices ranged from $95.98 to $135.50.

This distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O'Higgins' "basic method" for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of "market sentiment" gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, however, since analysts are historically only 15% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.

Afterword

If somehow you missed the suggestion of the four stocks ripe for picking at the start of the article, here is a repeat of the list at the end:

The following 4 (as of 7/7/23) realized the ideal of offering annual dividends from a $1K investment exceeding their single share prices: Walgreens Boots Alliance; VF Corp; Amcor PLC; Franklin Resources Inc. Watch for Realty Income Corp to drop $4.18 in price, and 3M Co to plunge $19.81 to become ideal.

Price Drops or Dividend Increases Could Get All Ten Top Aristocrat Dogs Back to "Fair Price" Rates For Investors

Since four of the top ten Aristocrats shares are now priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the following charts compare those four plus six at current prices. The dollar and percentage differences between recent and fair prices are documented in the top chart. Recent pricing is shown in the middle chart. Fair pricing, when all ten top dogs conform to the ideal, is displayed in the bottom chart.

S&P500 Aristocrats Alphabetically by Ticker Symbol

Note that the number of years of dividend increases for these 67 Aristocrats are documented in the far right column on the chart above.

The net gain/loss estimates i the article above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your Dividend Aristocrats dog stock purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

For further details see: