ATSG - Air Transport Group Delivering On At Least Some Of Its Potential

• Air Transport posted better than expected Q4'21 results, including 21% revenue growth and 27% adjusted EBITDA growth, and guided to a substantially higher '22 EBITDA target.
• Management continues to invest in fleet expansion, with 80 conversion slots locked up through 2026 and roughly a dozen new planes coming into the business next year.
• Reported free cash flow is low, but this is largely driven by the company's growth plans; structural free cash flow (excluding growth CapEx) is quite robust and funds the growth.
• Long-term revenue growth of 8% and FCF growth of 11% can support a fair value in the high $30s.

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