TSLA - ARK's Expected Value For Tesla In 2029
2024-06-13 11:40:00 ET
Summary
- ARK’s updated open-source Tesla model yields an expected value of $2,600 per share in 2029.
- ARK estimates that nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029.
- Electric vehicles could approximate a quarter of total sales and ~10% of Tesla’s earnings potential, as we believe the robotaxi business will have much higher margins.
By Tasha Keeney, CFA, Sam Korus, & Daniel Maguire, ACA
ARK's updated open-source Tesla ([[TSLA]], [[TSLA:CA]]) model yields an expected value of $2,600 per share in 2029. The bull and bear cases, tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes, respectively, are approximately $3,100 and $2,000 per share, as shown below. This research update presents ARK's open-source Tesla model, which incorporates distributions for 45 independent inputs to simulate a range of potential outcomes for the company and its stock.
| ARK's Simulation Outputs |
| ARK's 2029 Price Estimate (Per Share) |
| Significance |
| Expected Value |
| $2,600 |
| This projection is our expected value for Tesla's stock price in 2029, based on our Monte Carlo analysis. |
| Bear |
| $2,000 |
| In this analysis, the probability that Tesla's stock could be worth $2,000 per share or less in 2029 is 25%. |
| Bull |
| $3,100 |
| In this analysis, the probability that Tesla could be worth $3,100 per share or more in 2029 is 25%. |