ACTV - Big Game
2024-02-12 13:20:00 ET
Summary
- Since October, the stock market has been roaring higher on the idea that the Fed was winning the battle against inflation and was ready to start lowering rates. This was the much-hyped "soft landing" for the economy.
- Since January 12th, the market has gone from pricing in 7 rate cuts to just 4, and the market has rallied 5%.
- While markets can stay irrational, stair-stepping higher week after week, when markets correct they take the elevator down.
Since October, the stock market has been roaring higher on the idea that the Federal Reserve was winning the battle against inflation and was ready to start lowering rates. This was the much-hyped “soft landing” for the economy. Since January 12 th , the market has gone from pricing in 7 rate cuts to just 4, and the market has rallied 5%!! Jim Bianco from Bianco Research notes that the New Zealand central bank has been out in front of this economic cycle. They were the first central bank to move to higher rates in this cycle. They were the first to pause rate hikes, and now, will be the first to start hiking rates again. My thesis has been that inflation will be difficult to tame and come in waves. The folks down under are feeling the heat. Are they the canary in the coal mine?...
Big Game