ACTV - Bullish Dreams Should Be Tempered By History
Summary
- January brought gains across most asset classes, especially for the junkiest debt, equities, and crypto-Ponzis.
- The bulls are chomping at the bit to convince us that the 2022 loss cycle is now over.
- Today, the US Fed is still in tightening mode via rate hike plans and ongoing Quantitative Tapering.
January brought gains across most asset classes, especially for the junkiest debt, equities, and crypto-Ponzis.
The bulls are chomping at the bit to convince us that the 2022 loss cycle is now over. However, it bears noting that big rebounds have been a regularly recurring feature within bear markets since time began.
The Bloomberg chart below summarizes the 20 S&P 15%+ rallies within larger downtrends from 1929 to 2008. Buy and holders should beware.
There has also never been a bear market low that occurred before the US Fed paused a tightening cycle. In every case, stocks fell for months after the first cut. Today, the US Fed is still in tightening mode via rate hike plans and ongoing Quantitative Tapering.
Disclosure: No positions
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
For further details see:
Bullish Dreams Should Be Tempered By History