ACTV - Business Conditions Monthly May 2024

2024-07-29 07:58:00 ET

Summary

• In May 2024, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly Leading Indicator sank to a mildly expansionary level of 54, its lowest value since October 2023.
• The Roughly Coincident Indicator rose to 83, continuing a streak of expansionary readings, broken only by dips to the neutral 50 level in January and October 2023.
• High interest rates are dampening economic activity, consumer spending is slowing, and if consumer cutbacks lead employers to reduce staff, the virtuous cycle of rising employment and spending could reverse.

By Peter C. Earle

In May 2024, the AIER Business Conditions Monthly Leading Indicator sank to a mildly expansionary level of 54, its lowest value since October 2023. The Roughly Coincident Indicator rose to 83, continuing a streak of expansionary readings, broken only by dips to the neutral 50 level in January and October 2023. The Lagging Indicator, meanwhile, sank to 42, bringing to three the number of months since January that the index was contractionary....

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