NLSN - Citi hits sidelines on Nielsen on less compelling risk-reward

Shares in Nielsen Holdings (NLSN -0.3%) are largely holding up despite a downgrade to Neutral at Citi, seeing less compelling risk-reward at current levels. Citi still believes Nielsen can hit medium-term targets that it laid out at an Investor Day in December. Its base case assumes Nielsen reaches the top end of its organic growth guidance for 2021. "However, our base case forecast has more moderate organic growth rates with revenue growing ~4% in 2022/2023 and assumes the company exceeds 150 basis points of margin expansion by 2023," it says. The base case also takes a less aggressive valuation approach to account for execution risk and U.S. media consolidation. That case results in an equity value of $29/share, about 7% upside from current levels. A bull case has a target of $34. There's limited downside due to the strategic decision to spin off the Global Connect business and cut debt,

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Citi hits sidelines on Nielsen on less compelling risk-reward