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Prior to last week's nasty sell-off, commodity stocks have been monster winners in 2022. Anecdotally, I am reading too many bullish commodity articles, perhaps a sign of a top.
The elephant in the room is the war in Ukraine, which arguably caused the big blow-off top. Absent this horrible war, there wouldn't have been these massive moves.
It is really important to understand the element of luck, both good and bad, in the investment process, and I urge readers to focus on the thought process over just outcomes.