- Prior to last week's nasty sell-off, commodity stocks have been monster winners in 2022. Anecdotally, I am reading too many bullish commodity articles, perhaps a sign of a top.
- The elephant in the room is the war in Ukraine, which arguably caused the big blow-off top. Absent this horrible war, there wouldn't have been these massive moves.
- It is really important to understand the element of luck, both good and bad, in the investment process, and I urge readers to focus on the thought process over just outcomes.
For further details see:
Commodity Supercycles And The Role Of Luck