KEJI - Economic Growth Outlook: The Slowdown Continues

• Beginning with what is perhaps the best indicator of growth potential in the real economy, as opposed to just the financial economy, the G3 credit impulse is now firmly in negative territory after peaking in the latter stages of 2020.
• Turning to manufacturing, building permits for new housing have been decelerating in a year-over-year rate of change basis at an alarming rate since April.
• It is important to remember from an asset allocation and portfolio positioning point of view that it is the direction of the rate of change in growth that matters.

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