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Industrial production is likely to have increased in May, but don’t let the numbers fool you. Without an improved trade outlook, manufacturing could be in for a weak second half of the year. As long as employment remains stable, however, an outright eurozone recession remains unlikely.
Industrial production peaked in December 2017 and has been on a declining trend ever since. While the indicator is volatile and plenty of one-off factors have been impacting the industrial sector over the past year and a half, the trend is worrying.