By Bert Colijn, Senior Economist, Eurozone
Industrial production is likely to have increased in May, but don’t let the numbers fool you. Without an improved trade outlook, manufacturing could be in for a weak second half of the year. As long as employment remains stable, however, an outright eurozone recession remains unlikely.
Industrial production peaked in December 2017 and has been on a declining trend ever since. While the indicator is volatile and plenty of one-off factors have been impacting the industrial sector over the past year and a half, the trend is worrying.