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The change in core inflation during the two-year period following the beginning of a recession has averaged just -0.4%.
Rate hikes have a disproportionate impact on interest-sensitive sectors such as housing and durable goods, but the effect on overall economic activity is actually fairly weak.
At current valuations, an improvement in our measures of market internals wouldn’t provide the basis for a bullish investment outlook, but it would suspend the immediacy of our bearish outlook.