2023-04-26 01:47:00 ET
Summary
- The change in core inflation during the two-year period following the beginning of a recession has averaged just -0.4%.
- Rate hikes have a disproportionate impact on interest-sensitive sectors such as housing and durable goods, but the effect on overall economic activity is actually fairly weak.
- At current valuations, an improvement in our measures of market internals wouldn’t provide the basis for a bullish investment outlook, but it would suspend the immediacy of our bearish outlook.
For further details see:
Fabricated Fairy Tales And Section 2A