FEZ - Fade The Strong Euro Consensus
By Jeff Weniger, CFA
You wouldn't know it from the stock market's gut-wrenching fourth-quarter decline and 2019's snapback, but the euro has been downright sleepy.
Be careful because that can change quickly.
EUR/USD touched a recent low of $1.128 in November and has been moving in a 3-cent range ever since, flirting with that level right now. The currency was oblivious to the panic that sent the VIX volatility index for equities to a Lehman-like level of 36 during the lazy days around Christmas.
Figure 1 shows that, over the last five years, EUR has