TLT - February CPI: Risk Skewed To Upside; Long-Term Picture Is Bearish
2024-03-11 18:40:51 ET
Summary
- Consensus estimate for Core CPI is +0.3% MoM, but risks are skewed to the upside.
- Median estimate is currently at +0.32%, only 0.06% away from last month's figure and +0.03% from being rounded up to a reported 0.4%.
- Factors such as used car prices, goods prices energy prices, and food prices could push Core CPI higher, while shelter items may contribute to deceleration.
- The greater risk of disappointment is in the intermediate-term. Consensus expectations of inflation falling to near 2.0% by the end of 2024 are likely to be badly disappointed.
The consensus estimate for Core CPI is widely being quoted at +0.3% on a Month-on-Month Basis, which would represent a decrease of -0.10% compared to the previous month’s figure of +0.4%. However, the risks to the consensus estimates appear to be skewed to the upside....
February CPI: Risk Skewed To Upside; Long-Term Picture Is Bearish