AZN - FibroGen: Roxadustat's U.S. Approval 2020 China Sales And Outsized Growth

• FibroGen, Inc. is a commercial-stage global biopharmaceutical company developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics treating anemia, fibrotic diseases, and cancer.
• FibroGen's pipeline consists of two late-stage/commercialized therapeutics and one medical product all with several indications each. The lead therapeutic is Roxadustat (a HIF-PHI) approved for CKD-associated anemia patients in China and Japan.
• FibroGen began China/Japan Roxadustat sales in 2020 growing from $580K (9m 2019) to $52.3M (9m 2020) on top of total revenues of $111.3M (9m 2020). Analysts expect FYE 2021 revenues of $477M.
• FibroGen's long-awaited catalyst is the PDUFA action date (US approval) for Roxadustat which is postponed till March 20, 2020.
• In summary, the author projects FibroGen as a "buy" at a conservative one-year price target of $48.06 (+20% upside).

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