FSLR - First Solar Q4 earnings preview: More bottom line pressure but long-term prospects remain sunny

First Solar ( NASDAQ: FSLR ) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Tuesday, February 28th, after market close.

The consensus EPS Estimate is -$0.15 (-112.2% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $1B (+10.2% Y/Y).

First Solar's ( FSLR ) most recent quarter was "a disaster across the board," with gross margin coming in at 3.3% compared to Wall Street's 9.1% consensus estimate, yet the stock has ranked among the top performing solar stocks of 2022, trading at 85x the $189.2M consensus FY 2022 EBITDA estimate.

Shares have surged 120% in the past 12 months, driven by the promise of the Inflation Reduction Act. However, analysts suggest First Solar ( FSLR ) is currently priced to match that promise.

Evercore ISI issued a downgrade following the stock's massive recent outperformance, especially relative to residential installer companies.

First Solar ( FSLR ) has been the major beneficiary of the announcement of the Inflation Reduction Act, but "with the capacity for FSLR largely sold out through 2025-26, and current manufacturing volume expansion already factored into our model, we are beginning to see the benefits of the IRA and its PTC provisions being largely reflected in the current FSLR share price," Evercore's Sean Morgan wrote.

BofA too downgraded shares citing recent stock outperformance and weakness in global solar prices, noting "favorable drivers are largely embedded" in the share price.

Baird noted that the wide estimates range "may create noise related to the 2023 guide, but we continue to believe the long-term setup is strong" and First Solar ( FSLR ) remains poised to be one of the largest direct beneficiaries of the IRA.

Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 0 upward revisions and 2 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 1 downward.

Over the last 1 year, FSLR has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time.

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