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RWIU - Global Monetary Easing And China Stimulus To Stabilize Global Growth
Direxion FTSE Russell International Over US ETF Direxion Shares ETF Trust
In the past 18 months, business sentiment and growth projections have been deteriorating significantly due to three main risk factors: global monetary tightening (Fed 225bps of rate hike + 800bn USD of QT), a tightening of credit in China and elevated uncertainty amid trade war dispute. Figure 1 shows that in the past three years, the Economic Policy Uncertainty ((EPU)) index developed by Baker et al. (2016) has been pricing in much higher volatility. As a consequence, global manufacturing PMIs have been falling, raising demand for safe havens such as US Treasuries and therefore compressing