In the past 18 months, business sentiment and growth projections have been deteriorating significantly due to three main risk factors: global monetary tightening (Fed 225bps of rate hike + 800bn USD of QT), a tightening of credit in China and elevated uncertainty amid trade war dispute. Figure 1 shows that in the past three years, the Economic Policy Uncertainty ((EPU)) index developed by Baker et al. (2016) has been pricing in much higher volatility. As a consequence, global manufacturing PMIs have been falling, raising demand for safe havens such as US Treasuries and therefore compressing