ACTV - High-Vol Politics Low-Vol Markets

2024-07-15 07:15:00 ET

Summary

• A new Trump term would likely bring a flurry of change and activity, whereas a second Biden term is more likely to see a more predictable consolidation of first-term legislative initiatives.
• On trade and tariffs, we see the clearest signal of all that Trump would double down on his first-term policies.
• We believe market volatility is low because of high electoral uncertainty and volatility, not despite it.

By Joseph V. Amato

Are markets calm because of electoral unpredictability, rather than despite it?

Many market commentators, including us , came into 2024 noting that electoral politics was likely to be a key theme in a year in which half the world’s adult population was going to the polls....

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