LODE - Is Spruce Point picking up nickels in front of an Alpha Met train?

Spruce Point Management, an activist short selling fund founded by former investment banker Ben Axler in 2009, released a short report Tuesday calling for a 40-60% decline in Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR). Axler takes an "all of the above" approach to the short, citing his firm's "prescient calls" in the commodity sector, and pointing to a laundry list of accounting red flags, valuation idiosyncrasies and insider sales. Although the short pitch is light on forward-looking industry fundamentals, any pitch from a short-focused fund that survived from 2009 to 2022 should be considered carefully. As evidenced by a list of Spruce Point's successes of late:  Metallurgical coal is expected to account for 90% of Alpha's (AMR) shipments in 2022, while thermal coal volumes are expected to account for 10% of sales. Spot seaborne met coal prices have more than doubled from their 5-yr average, while thermal coal prices have risen by ~5x. A

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Is Spruce Point picking up nickels in front of an Alpha Met train?