USOI - June Non-OPEC And World Oil Production
2023-10-13 00:38:00 ET
Summary
- The October STEO is projecting June Non-OPEC oil production to increase by 1,069 kb/d to 51,079 kb/d.
- July 2023 production is projected to increase by 474 kb/d, the majority of which occurs in the later half of 2024.
- The China National Bureau of Statistics reported that production in August dropped by 124 kb/d from June to 3,986 kb/d.
A guest post by Ovi
This month’s report is a shorter version of previous posts because the EIA’s International Energy Statistics update for June is not available. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few of these countries and the world.
Where STEO data was used, the ratio of C + C to All Liquids was calculated . The average for the last four months was used to project June, July and August production for a few countries.
World oil production and projection charts are presented at the end of this post.
The October STEO is projecting June Non-OPEC oil production to increase by 1,069 kb/dto 51,079 kb/d. Close to 500 kb/d of that increase is associated with the upward revision of Russian output from last month. In the previous EIA May report, Russian condensate was not included in Russian production.
Using production data from the October 2023 STEO and the previous May’s EIA International Energy Statistics, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the period July 2023 to December 2024. (Red graph). Output is expected to reach 52,671 kb/d in December 2024, which is 722 kb/d higher than the December 2019 peak of 51,949 kb/d.
From July 2023 to December 2024, oil production in Non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 1,027. Note that production is expected to be relatively flat till May 2024.
June Non-OPEC W/O US production, using the same method described above, is projected to increase by 863 kb/d to 38,179 kb/d. Again, close to 500 kb/d of this increase is associated with the upward revision to Russia’s June output. July 2023 production is projected to increase by 474 kb/d, the majority of which occurs in the later half of 2024.
From July 2023 to December 2024, production in Non-OPEC countries W/O the US is expected to increase by 621 kb/d.
Note that December 2024 output exceeds the pre-covid high of 39,062 kb/d in January 2020 by 212 kb/d.
Non-OPEC Oil Production Charts
Brazil’s National Petroleum Association (BNPA) reported that output in June and July increased to a new record high. July increased by 146 kb/d to 3,513 kb/d mainly due to new project start-ups in the Pre-Salt layer, red markers. August production dropped by 51 kb/d to 3,462 kb/d.
According to the October MOMR: the August drop is “mainly due to maintenance in the pre-salt fields.”
The STEO is forecasting that Canadian production rebounded in June by 74 kb/d to 4,286 kb/d. Production continued to increase in July and August. The April and May drops to 4,212 kb/d were due to significant maintenance at the oil sands mines and upgraders.
The China National Bureau of Statistics reported that production in August dropped by 124 kb/d from June to 3,986 kb/d.
While China’s production growth has risen steady since 2018, it may be approaching its post pandemic high.
Every January for the last four years, China’s production has taken a massive jump. In January 2022, production climbed by 307 kb/d to 4,185 kb/d. In 2023, production jumped in both January and February by 322 kb/d to a new high of 4,295 kb/d. Production then drops after these big increases. Are the production jumps associated with new wells being brought online and why in winter?
According to the October MOMR: “For 2024, Chinese liquids production is expected to remain steady y-o-y and is forecast to average 4.6 m/d.”
According to the STEO, Kazakhstan’s output increased by 65 kb/d in June to 1,879 kb/d. The STEO is forecasting that production decreased in July and August to 1,754 kb/d.
Mexico’s production in June was 1,938 kb/d a decrease of 31 kb/d from May. Output dropped to 1,895 kb/d in July and rebounded to 1,940 kb/d in August according to Pemex.
Mexico has recently revised its definition of condensate. This has resulted in the EIA adding an extra 60 kb/d, on average, to the Pemex report. The red markers include the additional 60 kb/d.
The Norway’s Petroleum Directorate ((NPD)) reported that June’s production dropped to 1,781 kb/d. Production rebounded in July to 1,846 kb/d and then dropped to 1,805 kb/d in August. (Red markers).
According to the NPD : “Oil production in August was 1.0 percent higher than the NPD’s forecast and 0.2 percent lower than the forecast so far this year.”
Recent production highs to 1,850 kb/d appears to be close to Norway’s post Covid production peak.
Oman’s production rose very consistently since the low of May 2020. However production began to drop in October 2022. According to the October STEO, Oman’s June output dropped by 5 kb/d to 1,039. The STEO projects that production will recover in August after July’s drop to 1,037 kb/d.
The EIA’s STEO report was used to project Russian output in September by reducing the all liquids output by 0.938 to estimate the C + C production. The 0.938 is a pre-war average of Russia Ministry production to the STEO all liquids production from October 2020 to September 2021. September production was 9,815 kb/d an increase of 28 kb/d over August, orange markers.
Using data from Argus Media , Russian production was estimated from April to September. For September, Argus reported that Russian crude production was 9,500 kb/d, an increase of 30 kb/d, blue markers. Adding 8% to Argus’ September crude provides a projected C + C production of 10,260 kb/d, red markers.
Comparing the Argus crude data with the latest STEO projection indicates that the STEO estimate for Russian C + C is midway between the Argus estimates for Crude and C + C.
Both the October OPEC MOMR and the IEA OMR agree that Russian crude production in September was close to 9,500 kb/d .
World Oil Production Projection
World oil production in June, according to the STEO, increased by 1,263 kb/d to 81,416 kb/d (Green graph). As noted previously, close to 500 kb/d of the increase is due to an upward revision to Russian production.
This chart also projects World C + C production out to December 2024. It uses the October 2023 STEO report along with the May International Energy Statistics to make the projection. (Red markers).
The red graph forecasts that World crude production in December 2024 will be 82,213 kb/d and is 1,979 kb/d lower than the November 2018 peak. Note that it is not known how much of the increase is due to OPEC + reducing their voluntary production cuts.
World without the US oil output in June increased by 1,057 kb/d to 68,516 kb/d. July’s output is expected to drop by 400 kb/d to 68,116 kb/d. December 2024 output of 68,817 kb/d is 3,584 kb/d lower than October 2018 output of 72,401 kb/d.
Note that World oil production W/O the U.S. from August 2022 to December 2024 is forecast to decrease by 200 kb/d.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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June Non-OPEC And World Oil Production