CA - Lithium Miners News For The Month Of February 2023

Summary

• Lithium chemical prices were significantly lower and spodumene prices were roughly flat over the past month.
• Lithium market news - GM invests US$650m into Lithium Americas in return for Thacker Pass lithium off-take deal. Bloomberg: Tesla is considering a bid for battery metals miner (Sigma Lithium).
• Lithium company news - Albemarle Q4, 2022 adjusted diluted EPS of $8.62, an increase of 753% YoY. Livent reported full year 2022 revenue of $813.2m, nearly double 2021 results.
• AMG Lithium signs MOU with FREYR Battery for supply of battery-grade lithium hydroxide. NAL (SYA:PLL) on track for first spodumene production in late Q1 2023. Sigma Lithium remains on track for production in April 2023.

Welcome to the February 2023 edition of the lithium miner news.

The past month saw many lithium stock prices partially recover after a December rout which correctly anticipated lithium chemical price falls in January 2023 as China EV sales slowed down ( 6% lower YoY ); due to subsidies expiring and Chinese New Year falling in January this year (February last year). Covid-19 was also a negative factor in China in January this year.

We also saw the largest move ever by an auto OEM ( GM ) to secure lithium supply (from LAC) as well as reports Tesla is also looking to buy a miner to secure lithium supply (Sigma Lithium).

Meanwhile the four new lithium projects expected to come online in H2, 2022 continue to run late, and are now likely to begin in H1, 2023; plus we will also see the NAL project come online in H1, 2023.

Lithium price news

Asian Metal reported during the past 30 days, the 99.5% China lithium carbonate spot price was down 8.03% and the China lithium hydroxide price was down 7.84% . The Lithium Iron Phosphate (Li 3.9% min) price was down 8.64% . The Spodumene (6% min) price was down 1.20% over the past 30 days.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported China lithium prices of battery grade carbonate - RMB 457,500 ($66,800), hydroxide RMB 473,000 ($69,050), and Benchmark stated (paywalled): "Sentiment surrounding near-term demand remained bearish, with downstream cell and cathode manufacturers continuing to operate at low utilisation rates after Spring Festival. However, given that many Chinese automakers have reduced EV prices across January and February to incentivise sales, contacts have reported expectations that demand could rebound notably towards the end of Q1 2023, driving raw material restocking activities."

Metal.com reported lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) price of CNY 37,226 (~USD 5,407/mt), as of February 21, 2022. The CNY price is slightly higher than last month.

China Lithium carbonate spot price 5 year chart - CNY 422,500 (~USD 61,353) ( source )

Wood Mackenzie's lithium price forecast - July 2022 ( Source )

Lithium demand versus supply outlook

2022 - UBS lithium demand v supply forecast to 2030

Lithium demand v supply forecast by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (mid 2022 forecast)

Fastmarkets lithium demand v supply forecast (as of 2022) ( Source )

BMI (Q2, 2022 forecast ) - Lithium demand to exceed supply mostly this decade

Trend Investing v IEA demand forecast for EV metals ( Trend Investing ) ( IEA )

2021 IEA forecast growth in demand for selected minerals from clean energy technologies by scenario, 2040 relative to 2020 - Increases Of Lithium 13x to 42x, Graphite 8x to 25x, Cobalt 6x to 21x, Nickel 7x to 19x, Manganese 3x to 8x, Rare Earths 3x to 7x, And Copper 2x to 3x

Rio Tinto forecasts lithium emerging supply gap (October 2021) - 60 new mines the size of Jadar will be needed

BMI demand growth 2022-2035 (in mtpa) for critical metals. Number of new mines required by 2035 - 78 new lithium mines needed

Lithium market and battery news

On January 28 CarNewsChina reported :

CATL german plant to produce 30 million batteries annually. In December 2022, Chinese battery manufacturer CATL kicked off the production of lithium-ion battery cells at its new plant in Germany. And according to CATL, the battery plant will have an annual production capacity of 30 million batteries.

On January 29 Mining.com reported :

Scholz visits South America in race with China for lithium. Chancellor Olaf Scholz is hoping his trip to Latin America this weekend will help Germany secure additional supplies of the lithium that car giants like Mercedes-Benz Group AG and Volkswagen AG need for their electric-vehicle batteries. Scholz, who met with Chilean President Gabriel Boric on Sunday in Santiago, wants a larger share for Europe’s biggest economy, according to people familiar with the plans.

On January 31 CNBC reported :

GM to invest $650 million in a lithium company to support its electric vehicle business......Lithium Americas.....GM will get exclusive access to the first phase of lithium production and the right of first offer on the second phase of lithium production that will come out of the Thacker Pass mine in Nevada.

On January 31 Seeking Alpha reported :

GM's lithium deal the first of many still to come, EV materials analyst says........Automakers are starting to realize owning or owning a controlling stake in a lithium source (NYSEARCA: LIT ) is "the only way you're going to have the edge and guarantee can make EVs over the next 20 years," Moores said. It takes at least two years to build a gigafactory and 10 years or more to finance and build a lithium mine, according to Moores, adding automakers will need to make even larger investments.

On February 1 The Korea Times reported :

POSCO Chemical signs $33 bil. deal to supply cathode materials to Samsung SDI. POSCO Chemical said Monday it has signed a largest-ever long-term contract to supply a key component used in electric vehicle (EV) battery cells to Samsung SDI. POSCO Chemical will supply high-nickel cathodes, consisting of lithium, nickel, cobalt and aluminum, to Samsung SDI, for a 10-year period starting this year for 40 trillion won ($32.5 billion).....

On February 8 Investing News reported : " Which lithium juniors have supply deals with EV makers?"

Note: Best to read the above article where the following are discussed - Lithium Americas, Liontown Resources, Piedmont Lithium, Vulcan Energy Resources, ioneer, Rock Tech Lithium, European Lithium, and Greenwing Resources.

On February 16 Seeking Alpha reported :

Albemarle sees surging China EV production driving lithium demand..... Albemarle ( ALB ) is in "max growth mode," Cowen analyst David Deckelbaum.......The company expects China's electric vehicle market will grow 40% this year , or by at least 3M vehicles, executives said on the post-earnings conference call . Chinese lithium customers are not slowing orders and the country's stockpiles of cathodes and battery parts are decreasing, executives said on the call. "Our biggest challenge is managing the tremendous growth opportunity in front of us," CEO Kent Masters said.

On February 16 Investing News reported :

"Electric vehicles need battery metals mining, investing opportunities ahead. Demand for battery raw materials is outpacing supply by three to five times and is growing at a quicker rate as the world continues to push forward to reach net-zero goals.....Back in 2015, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence was tracking just three gigafactories — today that number has risen to 350, of which 145 are active......If the world is to meet increasing demand for battery metals by 2035 without recycling, it will need 59 new lithium mines, 62 new cobalt mines and 72 new nickel mines. “We are going into a new era where mining is at the center of driving this industry forward,” Moores said......"

On February 18 Bloomberg reported :

Tesla is considering a bid for battery metals miner......Sigma Lithium Corp., people with knowledge of the matter said, amid rampant demand for the metal used in electric vehicle batteries......Sigma Lithium is one of multiple mining options Tesla is exploring as it mulls its own refining, one of the people said.......Elon Musk, representatives for Tesla did not respond to requests for comment. Sigma Lithium’s Cabral-Gardner declined to comment on “rumors.”

On February 21 Bloomberg reported :

Lithium's plunge is pitting Cathie Wood against sector veterans....Others including Joe Lowry, founder of advisory firm Global Lithium, insist demand is being underestimated and that these prognosticators fail to take into account the complexities of securing funding and permitting for new mines. Suppliers are more bullish, too. “Early indications are both that cathode inventory and battery inventory in China are decreasing, which is a good sign for lithium sales,” Kent Masters, CEO of Albemarle Corp......The firm expects “continued favorable pricing for lithium” this year.......

Lithium prices have fallen as China EV sales fell in January due to China EV subsidies ending ( source ) - Note that Jan. 2023 electric car sales were only down 6% YoY and Chinese New Year and Covid-19 were factors in 2023

On February 22 Bloomberg reported :

Rio battles high-bidding carmakers in hunt for lithium deals. ‘Very expensive’ battery metal lithium is Rio’s No. 1 target. Rio CFO says miner needs to stay disciplined on acquisitions.....

Lithium miner news

Albemarle

On January 26 Seeking Alpha reported :

Albemarle rated new overweight at Piper Sandler driven by lithium growth.....as Piper Sandler launched coverage with an Overweight rating and 12-month price target of $310, expecting lithium growth will drive sharply higher earnings. "Based on consensus 2024 EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.9x, the market seems to be applying a multiple more commonly associated with cyclical shares, and indicative of not only peak earnings but a significantly lower trough at some point in time," Piper's Charles Neivert wrote, but sees Albemarle ( ALB ) "transitioning from a cyclical play to one more associated with growth, deserving a multiple more in line with its historical performance."

On February 15 Seeking Alpha reported : "Albemarle Non-GAAP EPS of $8.62 beats by $0.25, revenue of $2.62B beats by $20M."

On February 15 Albemarle announced : "Albemarle reports net sales increase ~3x for fourth quarter 2022; Full-year net sales over $7 billion." Highlights include:

• "Net sales of $2.6 billion, an increase of 193%.
• Net income of $1.1 billion, or $9.60 per diluted share; Adjusted diluted EPS of $8.62, an increase of 753%.
• Adjusted EBITDA of $1.2 billion, an increase of 444%.
• Full-year 2023 guidance includes net sales of $11.3 - $12.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $4.2 - $5.1 billion.
• Location acquired for Albemarle Technology Park in Charlotte, North Carolina......"

On February 16 Reuters reported :

Albemarle expects 40% Chinese EV market growth to drive lithium demand. Lithium giant Albemarle Corp (ALB.N) expects China's electric vehicle (EV) market to grow 40% this year, or at least by 3 million vehicles, boosting demand for the battery metal in the world's largest auto market.

On February 17 The West Australian reported : "Albemarle and Mineral Resources close in on lithium partnership revamp....." (see Mineral Resources news below)

Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. (NYSE: SQM ), Wesfarmers [ASX:WES] ( OTCPK:WFAFY ), Covalent Lithium (SQM/WES JV)

No significant news for the month.

Upcoming catalysts:

Q4, 2023 - Mt Holland spodumene production to begin (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).

Q4, 2024 - 50ktpa Lithium hydroxide [LiOH] refinery (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).

Investors can read SQM's latest presentation here or the latest Trend Investing article on SQM here .

Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium [SHE:002460] [HK: 1772] ( OTCPK:GNENF ) ( OTCPK:GNENY )

On February 5 Market Screener reported : "Ganfeng Lithium President resigns."

On February 8 AAStocks reported : "Ganfeng Lithium once surges 7%; subsidiary, SERES mull to launch electric SUV with solid state battery this yr."

Investors can read the latest Trend Investing article on Ganfeng Lithium here .

(Chengdu) Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. [SHE:002466], Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA) is a JV with Tianqi Lithium (51%) and IGO Limited (49%). TLEA owns the Kwinana lithium hydroxide facility in WA

No news for the month

Kwinana lithium refinery JV (51% Tianqi: 49% IGO) in Western Australia

Pilbara Minerals [ASX:PLS] ( OTC:PILBF )

On January 25, Pilbara Minerals announced :

P680 expansion project construction contract awarded to Primero. Major construction package awarded for next phase of pilgangoora’s growth to ~680ktpa production capacity.

On February 20, Pilbara Minerals announced :

S pot sale linked to hydroxide chemical pricing..... it has entered into a sales arrangement for a 15,000 tonne cargo of spodumene concentrate for delivery in the March Quarter. This is the first sale of its kind for the Company utilising a new commercial model based on lithium hydroxide tolling. The Company selected this model for this cargo having explored various other sales pathways including short-dated off-take and spot sales through the BMX platform.

Upcoming catalysts:

• Q4, 2023 - P680 Expansion Project set to begin production.
• Late 2023 - Plan to commission production of POSCO/Pilbara Minerals (18%, option to increase to 30%) JV LiOH facility in Korea.

Mineral Resources [ASX:MIN] ( OTCPK:MALRF )

Mt Marion Mine (50% MIN: 50% Ganfeng). Wodgina Lithium Mine ( 50% ALB: 50% MIN JV ). The 50ktpa Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide refinery trains 1 and 2 ( 85% ALB: 15% MIN ).

On January 25 Mineral Resources announced : "Quarterly exploration and mining activities report October to December 2022 (Q2 FY23)." Highlights include:

• " A total of 97k dmt (attributable) of spodumene concentrate was shipped during the quarter, 18% higher qoq.
• A total of 7,418 tonnes (attributable) of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate was converted with 6,612 tonnes (attributable) sold during the quarter, up 75% qoq.
• The average realised lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate revenue was US$65,996/t (exclusive of China VAT).
• The term of the Mt Marion Tolling Agreement with Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd (Ganfeng) was extended by one year to the end of CY23 on similar terms and conditions to the existing agreement. This agreement may also be extended by agreement of both parties for a further 12 months to the end of CY24.
• The timing of the Mt Marion expansion of production capacity to 900ktpa (100% basis) has been pushed back slightly due to the delayed supply of processing equipment and labour shortages. The upgrade is now expected to commence during April and ramp up to the full run-rate from July 2023. As a result, Mt Marion’s FY23 shipped guidance has been reduced to 250-280k dmt (previously 300-330k dmt) (51% share) of which 40% is expected to be high grade product (unchanged). Mt Marion’s FY23 FOB cost guidance has subsequently increased to $540-590/t (previously $460-510/t). The capital cost of the project remains at $120 million (100% basis). ...."

On February 23 Mineral Resources reported :

MARBL JV Agreement and Downstream Lithium Investment. The Agreements entail the following key principles and transactions, subject to receipt of required regulatory approvals: • Ownership of the Wodgina mine to change from 60/40 (Albemarle/MinRes) to 50/50. • Ownership of Kemerton I/II to change from 60/40 (Albemarle/MinRes) to 85/15. • Kemerton I/II will be fed by the Greenbushes mine. • Establishment of a new 50/50 Downstream Joint Venture to produce lithium battery chemicals. • MinRes will be the marketer of its share of lithium battery chemicals. ......

MinRes will make an initial US$350 million payment immediately following receipt of regulatory approvals for the Wodgina and Kemerton restructure, with other payments to be made as conversion capacity is developed and provided......

Summary of the new MARBL agreement as of Feb. 2023 ( source )

Investors can read the latest Trend Investing article on Mineral Resources here .

MinRes' production expansion targets as of Nov. 2022 ( source ) - Includes doubling Mt Marion capacity from 450-900ktpa in early 2023 ( now from July 2023 ) and Wodgina from 500ktpa to 750ktpa (Train 3 adds 250ktpa) by mid 2023

Livent Corp. ( LTHM )[GR:8LV]

On February 8 Livent Corp announced : " Livent receives 2022 EcoVadis Gold Sustainability Rating."

On February 14 Livent Corp announced :

Livent releases fourth quarter and full year 2022 results . Highlights include:

• Strong fourth quarter caps record financial performance in 2022.
• Capacity expansions expected to drive 20% higher sales volumes in 2023.
• 50% adjusted EBITDA ⁽¹⁾ growth at midpoint of 2023 Guidance.

Fourth quarter revenue was $219.4 million, down 5% and up 79% from the third quarter of 2022 and the prior year's quarter, respectively. Reported GAAP net income was $82.7 million, compared to $77.6 million and $7.5 million in the previous quarter and the prior year's quarter, respectively, or 39 cents per diluted share........

For the full year, Livent reported revenue of $813.2 million, nearly double 2021 results. GAAP net income was $273.5 million, or $1.36 per diluted share, compared to $0.6 million in 2021. Full year Adjusted EBITDA was $366.7 million, over five times higher than the prior year, and adjusted earnings per share were $1.40 per diluted share. This significant improvement was a result of higher average realized prices across all lithium products.

Allkem [ASX:AKE] [TSX:AKE] ( OTCPK:OROCF )(formerly Orocobre)

On February 21, Allkem announced :

Mt Cattlin production update. Allkem Limited (ASX|TSX: “Allkem,” the Company”) advises that further grade control drilling at Mt Cattlin has confirmed the location and grade of ore that will be mined over the remainder of H2 FY23. The Company anticipates that production for the June half will be approximately 80,000 – 90,000 tonnes with annual production of 114,000 – 124,000 tonnes. As previously advised first half production was impacted by fine grained mineralisation and lower grade ore with associated lower recoveries which limited first half production to approximately 34,000 tonnes.

Upcoming catalysts include:

• H1, 2023 - Olaroz Stage 2 expansion commissioning followed by a 2 year ramp to 25ktpa. When combined with Stage 1 total capacity will be 42.5ktpa.
• Mid 2024 - Sal De Vida Stage 1 production targeted to begin and ramp to 15ktpa . SDV Stage 2&3 combined will begin about 2025 and ramp to an additional 30ktpa. Total combined when completed will be 45ktpa.
• ?2025 - James Bay production targeted to start.

You can read the latest investor presentation here . You can read the latest Trend Investing Allkem article here .

AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. [NA:AMG] [GR:ADG] ( OTCPK:AMVMF )

On January 31 AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V., announced :

AMG Lithium signs MOU with FREYR Battery for supply of battery-grade lithium hydroxide......The basis of the MOU is for AMG Lithium to supply FREYR between 3,000 to 5,000 tons per annum of battery-grade lithium hydroxide......

Upcoming catalysts:

• H2, 2023 - Stage 2 production at Mibra Lithium-Tantalum mine (additional 40ktpa) forecast to begin, bringing total production capacity to 130ktpa.
• Q4, 2023 - Lithium hydroxide facility in Bitterfeld-Wolfen Germany to be commissioned. First module to be 20,000tpa LiOH.
• 2025-2028 - German LiOH facility expansion plan with Modules 2-5 (100,00tpa LiOH).

You can view the latest company presentation here or the Trend Investing article here .

Argosy Minerals [ASX:AGY][GR:AM1] ( OTCPK:ARYMF )

Argosy has an interest in the Rincon Lithium Project in Argentina, targeting a fast-track development strategy. Argosy initially plans to ramp to 2,000tpa lithium carbonate starting mid-2023.

On February 1 Argosy Minerals announced : "Rincon 2,000tpa Li2CO3 operational update." Highlights include:

• " 98% of 2,000tpa operational development works complete – with overall commissioning phase works currently 91% complete.
• Battery quality 99.76% lithium carbonate product successfully produced in single-run during current commissioning and production test-works phase.
• Preliminary ramp-up works commenced for continuous lithium carbonate production operations, with full ramp-up phase scheduled during current quarter, and advancing toward steady-state production operations by end of Q2-CY2023.
• Argosy on-track to become only the 2nd ASX-listed battery quality lithium carbonate producer. ..... "

Upcoming catalysts:

• Q1 2023 - Rincon Lithium production to begin ramping to 2,000tpa.

Investors can view the company's latest investor presentation here , and the latest Trend Investing Argosy Minerals article here .

Sayona Mining [ASX:SYA] ( OTCQB:SYAXF )

On January 31 Sayona Mining announced : "New NAL Milestone with successful ore crushing trial." Highlights include:

• " Restart of North American Lithium ((NAL)) operation achieves new milestone, with successful trial feed of 400 tonnes spodumene ore into crushing plant. ......
• NAL on track for first spodumene (lithium) production in late Q1 2023, becoming leading producer in North American lithium industry."

On January 31 Sayona Mining announced : "December 2022 quarterly activities report." Highlights include:

Québec, Canada

• "North American Lithium [NAL] restart accelerates towards first production in late Q1, 2023. Pre?feasibility Study ((PFS)) launched for production of lithium carbonate at NAL.
• Strategic acquisition and earn?in of 48 claims adjacent to NAL (Vallée Lithium Project).
• PFS commenced for Moblan Lithium Project, targeting development of lithium mine and concentrator.
• Further acquisition of 1,824 claims neighbouring Moblan, expanding northern lithium hub."

Western Australia

• "Joint Venture with Morella Corporation Limited (ASX:1MC) finalised to accelerate lithium exploration in the Pilbara and South Murchison."

On February 17 Sayona Mining announced : " NAL restart on track & on budget."

Upcoming catalysts include:

• Late Q1 2023 - Restart of NAL (SYA 75%: PLL 25%) operations.

Piedmont Lithium (Nasdaq: PLL ) [ASX:PLL]

Piedmont Lithium 100% own the Carolina Lithium spodumene project in North Carolina, USA; as well as 25% of the North American Lithium [NAL] Project in Canada and 50% of the Ghana Lithium Project.

On February 16 Piedmont Lithium announced : "Piedmont Lithium and LG Chem sign equity investment and Binding Offtake Agreements." Highlights include:

• "LG Chem investing $75 million to acquire Piedmont Lithium common shares.
• Piedmont to supply LG Chem with 200,000 metric tons of spodumene concentrate over four years.
• Agreements illustrate the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, with North American critical minerals supporting the development of a U.S. battery supply chain."

Upcoming catalysts include:

• Late Q1 2023 - NAL (25% PLL, 50% off-take PLL) production set to begin.
• Late 2024 - Ghana Project (50% PLL) targeted to begin.
• 2023-25 - Carolina Lithium (100%) - Permitting, off-take or project funding announcements.

You can view the company's latest presentation here , recent CEO interview here , or a Trend Investing article here .

Sigma Lithium [TSXV:SGML] ( SGMLF ) ( SGML )

Sigma is developing a world class lithium hard rock deposit with exceptional mineralogy at its Grota do Cirilo Project in Brazil.

On February 13, Sigma Lithium announced :

Sigma Lithium announces completion of crushing circuit and pump water system commissioning, remains on track for production in April, starts detailed engineering for plant expansion from 270,000 tpa to 760,000 tpa.....

Catalysts include:

• April 2023 - Commercial production targeted to begin at the Grota do Cirilo Project in Brazil and ramp to 27,000tpa spodumene (Stage 1) to be followed by Stages 2 & 3 combined for a total of 760,000 tpa.

Investors can read the latest company presentation here or the Trend Investing article here back when Sigma was trading at C$5.00.

Sigma Lithium has very large production plans ( source )

Core Lithium [ASX:CXO] [GR:7CX] ( OTC:CORX )( OTCPK:CXOXF )

Core 100% owns the Finniss Lithium Project (Grants Resource) in Northern Territory Australia. Significantly they already have an off-take partner with China's Yahua (large market cap, large lithium producer), who has signed a supply deal with Tesla ( TSLA ). The Company states they have a "high potential for additional resources from 500km2 covering 100s of pegmatites." Fully funded and starting mining with a planned H1 2023 production start.

On January 30 Core Lithium Ltd. announced : " Quarterly activities report for the three months ended 31 December 2022." Highlights include:

Sales and marketing

• "A shipment of 15,000dmt of DSO, with an average grade of 1.4% Li2O sold for US$951/dmt via a tender using a digital exchange platform......
• The crushing and screening plant was successfully commissioned......
• A five-year operations and maintenance contract for the DMS plant was awarded to Primero.
• Primero's additional night shift continued during the quarter to ensure construction of the Dense Media Separation ((DMS)) plant remains on schedule for production of first spodumene concentrate in the first half of 2023."

For further details see:

Lithium Miners News For The Month Of February 2023