ACTV - Powell's Testimony: Ignore The Narrative And Stay Alert

2024-03-06 16:40:49 ET

Summary

• Fed Chair Powell repeated the Fed's narrative, but did not update it with recent data on labor market and inflation.
• Since the December SEP assumptions, the labor market strengthened and inflation accelerated, thus the Fed will have to update SEP and signal less cuts in 2024.
• The stock market is in a speculative mania triggered by the Fed's dovish turn in December, which is likely to be reversed with the updated SEP in March.

The Fed's narrative

Fed Chair Jay Powell gave his semiannual testimony to Congress and basically repeated the Fed's narrative from the January FOMC meeting. He did not update the narrative with the most recent data on the labor market and inflation....

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