IND - Retail Sales March 2024: No Landing Means Rates Higher For Longer
2024-04-15 10:25:48 ET
Summary
- Retail sales in the U.S. expanded by +0.72% in March 2024, surprising to the upside by +0.32%.
- The strong retail sales report suggests that the U.S. economy is in a "no-landing" scenario, with average economic growth and accelerating inflation.
- As long as the no-landing scenario persists, market expectations regarding Fed easing of monetary policy will likely be disappointed.
- The risks of a major oil price shock are increasing.
The Census Bureau just published its Advance Report on Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services . Released at 8:30 AM, April 15, 2024, this report – widely considered to offer some of the best and most timely high-frequency indicators of current U.S. economic activity – provides initial data on consumer spending at U.S. retail establishments for March 2024.
In this article, we provide in-depth analysis of the just-released data and then discuss their implications for the U.S. economy and financial asset prices....
Retail Sales March 2024: No Landing Means Rates Higher For Longer